Presidential Election 2020

Will Male Voters Decide the 2020 US Presidential Election?

In 2016, many analysts said that male voters, particularly in the so-called “Brexit states,” put Trump in the White House. What will happen in 2020? A look at history will help us understand what’s possible.

Graph of US Presidential election voting results by gender, 1972 through 2016, with polling of 2020 election as of Oct. 29, 2020. Past data is gathered via exit polls.

This graph is one of foundational pieces of information for, and we believe this represents an opportunity for both parties to understand presidential politics better. There is a tremendous amount to be learned from this one graph — men and women both favored Nixon in 1972 and Carter in 1976; men strongly preferred Reagan and G.H.W. Bush; men preferred Clinton twice, G.W. Bush twice, Obama in 2008, and Trump in 2016. These differences forecasted the White House for 40 years, and may forecast the 2020 winner.

The 2020 data (grey dots): Biden is polling even with male voters, and close to +20 with female voters, according to data posted at the Rutgers Poll Tracker.

We also see a widening of the gap between men and women voting, indicating a possible larger cultural split between the genders in the US.

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