President Joe Biden did significantly better with male voters in 2020 than did Hillary Clinton in 2016, a major reason he was elected to the White House.
According to exit polls, Biden was a -1 with men, an 11 point increase over Hillary’s numbers. Given that men are such a large voting bloc, an 11 point jump over Hillary is enormous, and indicative that any presidential candidate in the future should pay attention to this group.
The Lincoln Project has been making headlines with its outspoken support of Biden and other Democratic candidates while actively denouncing Trump. What’s surprising about this is that its founders are former, and recent, Republicans.
In their latest ad, they have done something that we rarely see, but are very happy about at this point — created an ad targeted at the male voting bloc. It is a refreshing change to see a campaign actively targeting men as a demographic. In fact, it was so direct, the ad was simply entitled: “Men.”
The ad does not target all men — it specifically asks those men who voted for Trump in 2016 to vote for Biden in 2020, acknowledging that they made a “mistake” as any good man could do. It invokes hard-working middle-American men/fathers, and some commenters felt the message was a bit shaming.
However, we at HeHim.org are simply happy to have an ad targeted at men, even if it is only a subset. We love the imagery and the importance placed on fatherhood. So if you are a Biden supporter, you should be happy that the Lincoln Project, who are former Republicans, clearly understand the importance of the male vote in support of Democrats. If you are a Trump supporter who does not like the ad, we ask, where is Trump’s male-positive campaign ad? Show us and we’ll post it.
In a key determinant of potential victory, Joe Biden is polling even with male voters according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll, as reported on Investor.com. This is a key number that we are watching during the presidential race. And right now, Biden is polling close to where Obama was in 2008, a good sign for him.
As we have seen in every election since 1972, if the Republican candidate wins the male vote by more than 7.5%, that candidate has won. On the other hand, when the Democratic candidate has lost male voters by 7.5% or less (or even won the male vote by a small margin), then the Democrats took the White House.
Therefore, if this is an indicator, the numbers are looking good for Biden as he is well ahead of that 7.5% figure, even with a 3% margin of error.
In 2016, many analysts said that male voters, particularly in the so-called “Brexit states,” put Trump in the White House. What will happen in 2020? A look at history will help us understand what’s possible.
This graph is one of foundational pieces of information for HeHim.org, and we believe this represents an opportunity for both parties to understand presidential politics better. There is a tremendous amount to be learned from this one graph — men and women both favored Nixon in 1972 and Carter in 1976; men strongly preferred Reagan and G.H.W. Bush; men preferred Clinton twice, G.W. Bush twice, Obama in 2008, and Trump in 2016. These differences forecasted the White House for 40 years, and may forecast the 2020 winner.
The 2020 data (grey dots): Biden is polling even with male voters, and close to +20 with female voters, according to data posted at the Rutgers Poll Tracker.
We also see a widening of the gap between men and women voting, indicating a possible larger cultural split between the genders in the US.